Application of Artificial Neural Network Models in Predicting Economic Bankruptcy of the Registered Corporations in Stock Market
Akbar
Komijanie
Faculty member of Tehran University
author
Javad
Sa'adatfar
M. A. in Economics
author
text
article
2006
per
"Artificial Neural Network" is known as one of the most advanced "Bankruptcy Prediction Models". Based on this research paper، the main structure of three - and four - layer Perceptron models for bankruptcy prediction had led to same models; however، three-layer network has benefited from more predictive power than four - layer network. In comparison with other models، applying neural network models can improve the potentials of financial managments to stand against economic fluctuations and bankruptcy. Through this paper، the economic bankruptcy of registered corporations in Tehran Stock Market during ٢٠٠٦ – ٢٠٠٧ would be predicted and bankruptcy trend of above- mentioned corporations between ١٩٩١ - ٢٠٠٧ have been presented analytically. As a result of defining economic policies، the trend of economic bankruptcy would be remarkably increased through ٢٠٠٦. A year later، ٢٠٠٧، due to the compatibility of corporations with present situations، the above – mentioned trend would be adjusted.
Journal of Iran's Economic Essays (JIEE)
Research Institute of Hawzah and University; "Hawzah wa Dāneshgāh Research Institute"
1735-3300
3
v.
6
no.
2006
1
45
https://iee.rihu.ac.ir/article_301_8301081611378a7429f58a4785576abd.pdf
Determinants of Credit Risk among Bank Clients A Case Study; Agricultural Bank of Iran
Abbas
Arabmazar
Faculty member of Beheshti University
author
Pooneh
Ruintan
M. A. in Economics
author
text
article
2006
per
Applying logistic Regression Model, this research paper is aimed tofigure out the determinants of credit risk among Agricultural Bank'sclients of Iran and establish a model to assess the credit risk amongthem. To achieve the focus of this research, the qualitative andfinancial data of ٢٠٠ randomly sampled companies which hadreceived credit facilities from different branches of Agricultural Bankin Tehran during ١٩٩٩ – ٢٠٠٤ is evaluated here. Considering creditfiles of each sample, ٣٦ explanatory variables including qualitativeand financial ones were sampled Finally, applying logistic regressionanalysis, ١٧ variables, mostly have had significant effect on credit riskand unique low risk and high risk clients were selected. Based onstatistic indices, these estimated functions are considered significantlyin high reliability according to goodness of fit indices anddistinguishing potentials of the model.Findings of this research confirm the economic and financialtheories related to determinants of credit risk and show thatdeterminants of credit risk of Agricultural Bank clients have more incommon with the ones of the other Iranian banks such as Mellat andBank of Export Development.
Journal of Iran's Economic Essays (JIEE)
Research Institute of Hawzah and University; "Hawzah wa Dāneshgāh Research Institute"
1735-3300
3
v.
6
no.
2006
46
82
https://iee.rihu.ac.ir/article_302_9674e186fc08a4a76c936e4890c3ecaf.pdf
Convergence Theory; A Study of Iran's Position
Mansoor
Khalili
Faculty member of Tehran University
author
Nahid
Mas'udie
M. A. in Economics
author
text
article
2006
per
In its simplest form, convergence thesis predicts that per capitaincome and productivity of work force is going to be convergedamong different countries. However, it does not come true in realityas the world's economy is getting multi – polarized rather thanconverging. Therefore, the Simple convergence thesis has modified toconditional convergence thesis and changed to a kind of economicgrowth theory. This paper suggests all the countries meet with twoconvergences: convergences of developed (Rich) countries anddeveloping (Poor) countries. Iran's economy seems to be converged todeveloping (poor) countries. Although, the gap between per capitaincomes got increased through ١٩٧٥ – ٢٠٠٢, but through last decadeof ٢٧ years of study, it got to decrease. To converge to developed(rich) countries, Iran should improve its social technologicalpotentials.
Journal of Iran's Economic Essays (JIEE)
Research Institute of Hawzah and University; "Hawzah wa Dāneshgāh Research Institute"
1735-3300
3
v.
6
no.
2006
83
112
https://iee.rihu.ac.ir/article_303_41768231b80a89b4b7dc7e1842f2fac4.pdf
Effects of Bonding and Bridging Social Capital on Economic Growth of Iran's Provinces
Meysam
Amiri
M.A. Student in Economics
author
Teimoor
Rahmanie
Faculty member of Tehran University
author
text
article
2006
per
Social capital and its role in economic practice have remarkablyattracted economists all around the world. Despite of lots of studiesaround the topic, this field of study did not find a synthesis over theconcept of social capital. However, this is the correlation of socialcapital with economic growth which is in the focus of attention in thisresearch paper. What is the concept of social capital and how does itaffects economic growth are two questions which this research paperis intended to find answers for them. Therefore, two types of socialcapital are considered here; bonding and bridging social capital.Based on models of economic growth and applying data related toIranian values, attitudes and Iran's cultural behaviors, the impact ofthese two variables on economic growth of ٢٨ provinces of Iranthrough ٢٠٠٠ – ٢٠٠٣ has been evaluated. Applying OLS in thisresearch, it shows that there is an inverse relationship betweenbonding and bridging social capital. While bridging social capital hasfound positive and remarkable effect on economic growth, bondingsocial capital meet supposed indices with both positive and negativeeffect on economic growth.
Journal of Iran's Economic Essays (JIEE)
Research Institute of Hawzah and University; "Hawzah wa Dāneshgāh Research Institute"
1735-3300
3
v.
6
no.
2006
113
156
https://iee.rihu.ac.ir/article_304_83559baa2524a12b9586d62577594296.pdf
Juridical Analysis of Derivative Instruments
ali
Ma'asuminia
Faculty member of Tarbiat Moalem University
author
text
article
2006
per
Financial derivative instruments, which are created by financialexperts, play an important role in the world of high finance. To dealwith the risk, mainly price risk, these instruments have appeared andbegun to change and promote day in, day out. Their importance mayappear when it happens to them to be published more than basestock; great sum of money would be transferred by and ends bypaying the difference in price, not caring for contents of contract.This research paper tends to have a juridical analyse over theseinstruments. Explaining these instruments, first their legal naturewould be identified and then, juridical judgement would be inferred.Most of the instruments which are created to satisfy the requirementsof economic agents can be revised by law. May be, these instrumentsare misused, but this is incidental, as it may happen about otherlegitimate instruments like principle of commerce.
Journal of Iran's Economic Essays (JIEE)
Research Institute of Hawzah and University; "Hawzah wa Dāneshgāh Research Institute"
1735-3300
3
v.
6
no.
2006
157
192
https://iee.rihu.ac.ir/article_305_efdff412687fdb10e55c99e3dfa80072.pdf
Budget Deficit and Inflation
(A Case Study about Iran)
Firiizeh
Azizi
Faculty member of Tarbiat Modares University
author
text
article
2006
per
Relationship of budget deficit, inflation and value of money are somecontroversial issues mostly discussed in macroeconomics as a mainconcern of policy makers and economists in both developed anddeveloping countries. Policy of budget deficit is known as one of thefiscal policies resort widely applied in most countries specifically inIran. What is the relationship between budget deficit andmacroeconomics variable, as the main focus of this study, hasremained unanswered for a long time. Based on empirical studies,statistics show that the budget deficit and inflation relationship arenot the same among countries sampled in this research. This researchpaper tends to analyze and examine the theoretical and empiricalrelationship of budget deficit and inflation during ١٩٧٦ – ٢٠٠٥.Applying econometrics tests to evaluate the correlation betweeninflation and budget deficit, this relationship does not find anystatistically significant variation.
Journal of Iran's Economic Essays (JIEE)
Research Institute of Hawzah and University; "Hawzah wa Dāneshgāh Research Institute"
1735-3300
3
v.
6
no.
2006
158
220
https://iee.rihu.ac.ir/article_306_adfff98b389fb8c87a30881713962cc4.pdf
How Do Journals Subsidies Influence their Circulation in Iran?
Meisam
Mousaiie
Faculty member of Tehran University
author
text
article
2006
per
The impact of direct and indirect subsidies to journals on theircirculation and demand for journals are the matter of importance inthis research paper. Two questions raise if subsidies are intended tohelp them afford the journals' publication: ١. Do they really need toreceive subsidies? ٢. Do journals receive subsidies equally?To find answer for the questions, the amount of subsidies paid to alljournals, the way their incomes were and the expenditures of ninejournals with a wide circulation were sampled.For each journal, ٦٠ issues in ٢٠٠٦ (per months ٥ numbers) wererandomly sampled and were evaluated by income and expenditurecriterion.Estimating the average income and expenditure for each journaland determining the amount of benefit and loss, it was inferred thatto avoid their loss, paying subsidies to journals could be irrational aswell as did not agree with the average expenditures by journals.Paying subsidies did not remain remarkable influence on the demandfor journals, too. This research paper firstly suggests the eliminationof subsidies to journals, then, if they want to continue payingsubsidies, it must be basically revised based on equalizing the totalamount of average benefit and average subsidy for each issue.
Journal of Iran's Economic Essays (JIEE)
Research Institute of Hawzah and University; "Hawzah wa Dāneshgāh Research Institute"
1735-3300
3
v.
6
no.
2006
221
246
https://iee.rihu.ac.ir/article_307_f20499f01f0a55981866c66560afc843.pdf