Measuring the impact of economic complexity on vulnerability and resilience index

Authors

1 Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University

2 M.A in Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University

Abstract

In recent years, the reduction of economic vulnerability has become one of the goals of many policymakers, and the identification of effective factors influencing on reducing vulnerability is of great importance. This issue is more important for the Iranian economy, which needs to be more resilient. The question of the present article is that according to the world literature on the index of complexity, does the improvement of the complexity of the economy have an effect on the vulnerability index? After stating the theoretical framework, the article tests the data of 118 countries using the panel data model in the period 1997-2013. The results of the research show that: economic complexity and good governance both have a negative and significant impact on economic vulnerability. The article suggests that to reduce the vulnerability of the economy, the country's policymakers should focus on improving the quality of governance, the complexity of the economy (diversified and knowledge based export) and reducing the share of oil exports.

Keywords


  1. 1. چشمی، علی و سعید ملک‌الساداتی (1392)، «شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی و ارتباط آن با ساختار نهادی تولید مقایسه تطبیقی ایران، کره جنوبی و ترکیه»، اولین همایش توسعه پایدار با رویکرد بهبود محیط کسب‌وکار، مشهد: اتاق بازرگانی، صنایع، معادن و کشاورزی خراسان رضوی.

    2. عزیزی، زهرا و مرتضی خرسندی (1395)، «بررسی اثر حکمرانی خوب بر آسیب‎پذیری اقتصادی (رهیافت بین کشوری)»، فصلنامه سیاست‎گذاری پیشرفت اقتصادی دانشگاه الزهراB، (4) 3، ص129−150.

    3. محمدزاده، پرویز و همکاران (1389)، کاربرد نرم‌افزار stata در اقتصادسنجی، چاپ اول، تهران: نور علم.

    4. وثوقی، عفیفه (1395)، «تأثیر آسیب‎پذیری و تاب‎آوری اقتصادی بر نوسانات تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه، مطالعه بین کشوری»، فصلنامه پژوهشنامه اقتصادی، (17) 66، ص102−227.

    5. Agosin, M. R. (2007), Export diversification and growth in emerging economies, Santiago, Chile, University of Chile.

    6. Alwang, J., Siegel, P. B., & Jorgensen, S. L. (2001), “Vulnerability: A view from different disciplines”, Social protection discussion paper series, Vol. 115, p. 60.

    7. Atkins, J & S Mazzi, C Ramlogan (1998) A study of the vulnerability of developing and island states: a composite index. London: Commonwealth Secretaria.

    1. 8.  J & Jonathan P. Atkins, Sonia Mazzi, Christopher D. Easter (2000) A Commonwealth Vulnerability Index for Developing Countries. London: Commonwealth Secretaria.

    9. Baritto, F. (2008), “Disasters, vulnerability and resilience from a macro-economic perspective”, Background paper for the 2009 ISDR global assessment report on disaster risk reduction, Retrieved from.

    10. Briguglio, L. (1995), “Small island developing states and their economic vulnerabilities”, World development, 23(9), pp.1615-1632.

    11. Briguglio, L. (1997), “Alternative economic vulnerability indices for developing countries”, Report prepared for the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

    12. Briguglio, L. (2014), A vulnerability and resilience framework for small states, Bynoe-Lewis, D. Building the Resilience of Small States: A Revised Framework, London Commonwealth Secretariat.

    13. Briguglio, L. and Vella, M. (2016), “Trade openness and volatility”, Handbook of small states: Economic, Social and Environmental Issues, 42-52.

    14. Briguglio, L., & Galea, W. (2003), “Updating and augmenting the economic vulnerability index”, Occasional paper, University of Malta.

    15. Briguglio, L., Cordina, G., Farrugia, N., & Vella, S. (2009), “Economic vulnerability and resilience: concepts and measurements”, Oxford development studies, 37(3), 229-247.

    16. Guillaumont, P. (2009), “An economic vulnerability index: its design and use for international development policy”, Oxford Development Studies, 37(3), 193-228.

    17. Guillaumont, P. (2010), “Assessing the economic vulnerability of small island developing states and the least developed countries”, The Journal of Development Studies, 46(5), 828-854.

    18. Haddad, M., Lim, J. J., Pancaro, C., & Saborowski, C. (2013), “Trade openness reduces growth volatility when countries are well diversified”, Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, 46(2), 765-790.

    19. Hausmann, R., Hidalgo, C. A., Bustos, S., Coscia, M., Simoes, A., & Yildirim, M. A. (2014), The atlas of economic complexity: Mapping paths to prosperity. Mit Press.

    20. Hidalgo, C. A., & Hausmann, R. (2009), “The building blocks of economic complexity”, Proceedings of the national academy of sciences, 106(26), 10570-10575.

    21. Kaminsky, G. L., Lizondo, S. and Reinhart, C. M. (1998), “Leading Indicators of Currency Crises”, Staff Papers, 45(1), Washington, DC, IMF.

    22. Krishna, P., & Levchenko, A. A. (2013), “Comparative advantage, complexity, and volatility”, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 94, 314-329.

    23. Lee, S & Posenau, K & Stebunovs, (2017), The Anatomy of Financial Vulnerabilities and Crises, Federal Reserve Board. At: www. federalreserve. gov/pubs/ifdp/

    24. Ocampo, J. A. (2008), Macroeconomic vulnerability and reform: Managing pro-cyclical capital flows, Columbia University Initiative for Policy Dialogue http://www. bot. or. th/English/EconomicConditions/Semina/Documents/08_Paper_Ocampo. pdf.

    25. Seth, A., & Ragab, A. (2012), “Macroeconomic vulnerability in developing countries: Approaches and issues”, (No. 94), Working Paper, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.

    26. Sosso, F., & Goujon, M. (2016), The retrospective economic vulnerability index, 2015 update (No. P147), FERDI.

    27. United Nations (1994), Report of the Global Conference on the Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States, Bridgetown, Barbados, Global Conference on the Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States.