Investigating the effect of money growth uncertainty on economic development of Iran

Authors

1 Faculty member at the Dept. of Economics, Business and Management, Tabriz University

2 PhD student, Tabriz University

Abstract

An increase in the money growth uncertainty increases uncertainty in economic activities and this uncertainty causes the decline in economic growth. In this study, for investigation of this effect on Iran’s economy, effect of money growth uncertainty on economic growth is studied by quarterly data during 1369Q1 to 1389Q4 period. For measuring money growth uncertainty (growth of real liquidity) and for investigating its effect on economic growth GARCH model, ARDL model and bounds test of Pesaran and et al (2001) were used, respectively. Results show that, increase in money growth uncertainty reduces economic growth in both short and long run. Furthermore long run multipliers are bigger than short run multipliers. It implies that negative effect of increase in money growth uncertainty on economic growth in long run is more relative than the short run. So policymakers should consider stability of money growth rate in setting their policies about liquidity and monetary policies, especially in the long run.

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