Determining the Resilience components with an emphasis on Iran's Economic Vulnerability

Authors

1 PhD Student in Economics, Shahid Beheshti University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

2 Associate professor, Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Iran

Abstract

Economic resilience refers to the ability to cope with various economic shocks and the extent of recovery after a crisis. The purpose of this paper is to determine the effective factors in Iran's economic resilience index.  According to the existing resilience literature, and using the grounded theory approach, theoretical saturation was obtained with respect to the economic resilience components and indicator factors by using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach. In the presence of 63 variables, seven variables were identified which include: risk index, oil revenue to total government revenue ratio, the growth rate of government oil revenues, inflation rate, the ratio of government debt to the banking system to liquidity, the budget deficit to GDP ratio and the fluctuation of the growth rate of liquidity, as the most important variables determining the resilience of Iran's economy. Therefore, it is recommended to policymakers to reduce the vulnerability of economic sectors, by taking into account the impact of these variables.

Keywords

References

  1. 1.  ابونوری، اسماعیل و حسن لاجوردی، (1395)، «برآورد شاخص آسیب‌پذیری و تاب‌آوری اقتصادی به روش پارامتریکی: بررسی موردی کشورهای عضو اوپک»، فصلنامه نظریه‌های کاربردی اقتصاد، س3، ش3 (پیاپی 10)، ص25−44.

2. غیاثوند، ابوالفضل و فاطمه عبدالشاه (1394)، «مفهوم و ارزیابی تاب‌آوریی اقتصادیی ایران»، فصلنامهپژوهشنامهاقتصادیی، س15، ش59، ص161−187.

3. معلمی، مژگان، (1397)، «بررسی تأثیر آسیب‌پذیری اقتصادی بر توسعه کشورهای خاور میانه و شمال آفریقا (MENA)»، فصلنامه پژوهش‌های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی، ش9 (33)، ص141−156.

4. Abiad, A., Bluedorn, J., Guajardo, J., & Topalova. P., (2015) , “The rising resilience of emerging market and developing economies”, World Development, 72, 1−26.

5. Aiginger, K., (2009), “Strengthening the Resilience of an Economy (Enlarging the Menu of Stabilisation Policy to Prevent Another Crisis) ”, Intereconomics, 309−316.

6. Albertazzi, U., Gambacorta, L., (2009), “Bank profitability and the business cycle”, Journal of Financial Stability, 5, 393−409.

7. Baggio, M. & Perrings. C., (2015), “Modeling adaptation in multi−state resource systems”, Ecological Economics, 116: 378−386.

8. Bakhtiari, S. & Sajjadieh. F., (2018), “Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Economic Resilience Index”, Iranian Journal of Economic Studies, 7(1), 41−53.

9. Boorman, J., Fajgenbaum., J., Bhaskharan., M., & Harpaul, A.K. (2013), “The Centennial Resilience Index: Measuring Countries Resilience to Shock, Centennial Group”, Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 5(2), 57−98.

10. Bowman, A. & Parsons, B.M., (2009), “Vulnerability and Resilience in Local Government: Assessing the Strength of Performance Regimes”, State & Local Government Review, 41(1), 13−24.

11. Briguglio, L., Cordina, G., Farrugia. N., & Vella. S. (2008), Economic vulnerability and resilience(concepts and measurements), United Nations University (UNU), World Institute for Development Economics Research (WIDER), 1−20.

12. Camfield; L., Crabtree, A., Roelen, K., (2013), “Poverty, Vulnerability and Resilience in a Post-2015 World”, Social Indicators Research, 113(2), 599−608.

13. Essers, D., (2013), “Developing country vulnerability in light of the global financial crisis: Shock therapy? ”, Review of Development Finance, 3, 61-83.

14. Exner, A., Politti, E., Schriefl, E., Erker, S., Baud, M., Supper S., & Stöglehner, G., (2016), “Measuring regional resilience towards fossil fuel supply constraints, Adaptability and vulnerability in socio−ecological transformations−the case of Austria”, Energy Policy, 91: 128−137.

15. Gallopin, G., (2006), “Linkages between vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity”, Global Environmental Change, 16, 293−303.

16. Giannone, D., & Reichlin. L., (2011), “Market Freedom and the Global Recession”, IMF Economic Review, 59(1), 111−135.

17. Guidara, A., Soumaré, I., Tchana Tchana, F., (2013), “Banks’ capital buffer, risk and performance in the Canadian banking system: Impact of business cycles and regulatory changes”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 37, 3373−3387.

18. Markman, G., & Venzin, M., (2014), “Resilience: Lessons from banks that have braved the economic crisis-and from those that have not”, International Business Review, 23, 1096−1107.

19. Martin, S., Gernot, D., & Miller, R., (2004), “Determinants of long−term growth: A bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) approach”, The American Economic Review, 94(4), 813−835.

20. Proag, V., (2014), “The concept of vulnerability and resilience”, Procedia Economics and Finance, 18: 369−376.

21. Rose, A., & Krausmann, E., (2013), “An economic framework for the development of a resilience index for business recovery”, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 5, 73−83.

22. Storm, S., Naastepad, C.W.M., (2015), “Crisis and recovery in the German economy: The real lessons”, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 32, 11−24.

23. Surminski, S., Tanner, T., (2016), Climate Risk Management, Policy and Governance, Springer.

24. Vallascas, F., & Keasey, K., (2012), “Bank resilience to systemic shocks and the stability of banking systems: Small is beautiful”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 31, 1745−1776.

25. Wu, L., Li, Jing; Z., Zhong X., (2013), “Inflationary effect of oil−price shocks in an imperfect market: A partial transmission input−output analysis”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 35, 354−369.

Journal of Economic Essays; an Islamic Approach
Volume 17, Issue 33 - Serial Number 33
October 2020
Pages 219-242

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics