Identification and Ranking of Factors Influencing the Formation of Foreign Exchange Market Participants’ Expectations

Extended Abstract
 
Introduction and Objectives: Economic expectations are a fundamental and determining factor in foreign exchange rate fluctuations, playing a central role both within the framework of rational expectations theory and in behavioral economics. Rational expectations theory assumes that economic agents, utilizing all available information and based on logical models, predict future economic variables. In contrast, the behavioral approach emphasizes the role of subjective perceptions, emotions, cognitive biases, and incomplete information in economic decision-making. In Iran’s economy, due to structural dependence on oil revenues, the fragility of the real sector, and extreme sensitivity to political news, sanctions, and international developments, exchange rate fluctuations are significantly influenced by the expectations of market participants. This creates severe uncertainty in the decision-making of investors, exporters, importers, and economic policymakers.
This study is designed to identify, analyze, and rank the factors affecting the formation of expectations among Iran’s foreign exchange market participants. The primary focus of the study is on combining objective factors (such as changes in fiscal and monetary policies, and interest rates) and subjective/psychological factors (such as news flow, economic rumors, and public sentiment towards the future of the economy) to provide a comprehensive and realistic mechanism for analyzing the behavioral dynamics of the foreign exchange market. Furthermore, the present study seeks to examine the role of the interaction between informational, political, and economic variables in creating or curbing exchange rate volatility and, based on that, offer policy suggestions for managing expectations, increasing informational transparency, and strengthening foreign exchange market stability.
Research Methodology: This research is applied in purpose and descriptive-analytical in nature. It aims to identify factors affecting the expectations of Iran’s foreign exchange market participants while providing an analytical framework to explain the mechanism of expectation formation. In the first step, to extract influential factors, a systematic literature review was conducted using reputable international scientific databases such as ScienceDirect, Emerald, Springer, and SID. The review period was set from 2000 to 2023 to comprehensively cover recent developments in behavioral economics and exchange rate expectations. In this process, over 180 articles and research reports were reviewed, ultimately leading to the identification and classification of 29 factors affecting expectation formation.
In the second step, the Fuzzy Delphi method, an advanced group decision-making technique under uncertainty, was used to refine, screen, and prioritize the factors. This stage involved 14 experts, including foreign exchange market specialists, university professors, financial analysts, and economic policymakers. The Delphi process was conducted in two consecutive rounds to achieve expert consensus. The criterion for selecting key factors was a defuzzified mean greater than 0.6, resulting in 12 final factors being selected as the main components influencing foreign exchange market expectations.
Final Factors List




Factor


Fuzzy Number




The indirect role of media in public awareness


0.634




Reputation of monetary authorities


0.606




US election news


0.672




Published news regarding sanctions


0.807




Unexpected shocks from exchange rate fluctuations


0.707




Government expenditures


0.525




Currency swap


0.630




Risk of exchange with China


0.558




Internal political tensions


0.556




Internal unrest


0.592




Security and military tensions in the Middle East


0.696




Inflationary expectations resulting from changes in energy carrier prices


0.754




 
In the third step, to prioritize the factors, the Multi-Criteria MARCOS (Measurement of Alternatives and Ranking according to Compromise Solution) method was employed. In this stage, the four indices ki+ki+, ki−ki−, f(k+)f(k+), and f(k−)f(k−) were used to determine the final rank of each factor. Data were collected through specialized questionnaires and then analyzed using Excel software. The model’s validity was tested through sensitivity analysis and simulation of various scenarios.
Research Results: The results from the MARCOS method indicate that 6 factors have the greatest impact on the expectations of foreign exchange market participants:

Published news regarding sanctions (defuzzified number 0.807);
Inflationary expectations resulting from changes in energy carrier prices (0.754);
Unexpected shocks from exchange rate fluctuations (0.716);
Security and military tensions in the Middle East (0.701);
US election news (0.670);
The indirect role of media in public awareness (0.622).

Other factors such as currency swap, reputation of monetary authorities, internal unrest, risk of exchange with China, and government expenditures ranked lower. The results show that economic expectations, in addition to macroeconomic variables, are heavily influenced by informational and psychological variables, which play a significant role in determining the behavior of consumers, investors, and financial market participants. More detailed analyses indicate that media news, economic rumors, sudden changes in monetary policies, and even international events can have significant short-term and long-term effects on economic expectations. These findings emphasize the necessity of combining economic, psychological, and institutional analyses in predicting and managing economic expectations and demonstrate that adopting effective policies requires a precise understanding of the interaction between economic and psychological variables, as well as political and social conditions.
Discussion and Conclusion: Based on the findings, news related to sanctions is identified as the most important factor influencing the formation of expectations in Iran’s foreign exchange market. This result is consistent with studies by Lotfadi and Hashem Pesaran (2023), which show that shocks from sanctions increase volatility and instability in financial markets through psychological, expectational, and behavioral channels. Meanwhile, inflationary expectations resulting from changes in energy carrier prices ranked second, playing a moderating role in the value of the national currency. Additionally, unexpected exchange rate shocks, as the third factor, cause emotional reactions, increased speculative demand, and reduced public trust in policymakers through sudden changes in macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, regional security tensions, news related to US elections, geopolitical developments, and the role of media in highlighting economic news are among the influential political and informational variables in the model.
The research results indicate that managing the expectations of economic agents requires a multidimensional and intelligent approach, including increasing informational transparency, controlling the flow of sensitive news, enhancing the credibility of monetary policymakers, and reducing political and economic uncertainties. From the perspective of Islamic and non-usurious economics, this approach aligns with principles such as financial stability, economic justice, reduction of unproductive activities, and curbing speculation. Consequently, designing exchange rate policies based on managing psychological channels, targeted information dissemination, and coordination between monetary and fiscal policies can lead to reduced volatility, increased predictability, and strengthened stability in the foreign exchange market.
Acknowledgments: We sincerely thank all experts and specialists in the foreign exchange market who collaborated in the implementation of the Fuzzy Delphi and MARCOS stages.
Conflict of Interest: The authors declare that there is no financial, scientific, or organizational conflict of interest in this research.