The Impact of Economic Growth and Institutional Quality on Income Inequality in Iran

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, PhD in Economics, Department of Economics, Payāme Noor University, Tehran, Iran

2 PhD in Economics, Economics and Accounting, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran

3 PhD Candidate in Economics, Economics and Accounting, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran

4 PhD Candidate in Economics, Economics and Management, Khorramabad, Lorestan, Iran

Abstract

Extended Abstract
 
Introduction and Objectives: One of the most important economic duties of governments is to control the state of income distribution inequality. Governments can reduce the problem of income distribution inequality by employing theoretical and practical methods and identifying factors affecting income inequality in society. Among economists, there is no consensus regarding the factors influencing the increase in income inequality; from Kuznets’ perspective, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between income inequality and economic growth. The inability of the Kuznets hypothesis to describe the relationship between the level of development and income inequality led researchers to pay attention to the role of institutions and the development path of countries on income inequality. The existence of legal, social, and economic institutions ensures that contracts and agreements made at different levels of a country have enforcement guarantees. This issue increases security in the social system and reduces the cost of economic transactions. In such a situation, the final price of produced goods and services decreases, competition in domestic and international markets increases, and this leads to an increase in employment, an increase in per capita income, a reduction in poverty, and a reduction in income inequality.
In the Constitution of Iran, the reduction of income inequality has been mentioned, and despite the implementation of government support policies such as subsidies to reduce income inequality, several factors, including high inflation rates, high unemployment rates, economic recession, demographic changes, etc., have caused income inequality to form in society. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the impact of economic growth and institutional quality on income inequality in Iran during the period 2008-2024 (1387-1403 AH solar) using VAR and DSGE-VAR models.
Methodology: The Vector Autoregression (VAR) model is used to examine the dynamics of multivariate time series. In this model, each variable is modeled as a function of its own past values and the past values of other variables in the model. In other words, VAR is a generalization of Autoregressive (AR) models to a multivariate setting. The vector autoregression model seeks to explain the evolutionary process of a set of K variables (called endogenous variables) over the same statistical period using a linear function of only their previous values.
Due to the sample size limitation (n = 15 annual observations), the DSGE-VAR model was estimated with a weight of λ = 2.8 (equivalent to 80% priority for empirical data and 20% for theoretical DSGE restrictions) and assuming lag = 1. The assumption of lag = 1 was applied not only due to the sample limitation (n = 15) but also as a methodological innovation to prevent overfitting and preserve degrees of freedom. This approach is valid in DSGE-VAR studies with limited data (e.g., Smets & Wouters, 2007). The lag = 1 assumption is standard in VAR models with small samples (n < 20) (Lütkepohl, 2005) and is consistent with AIC/BIC criteria. These settings are designed based on the recommendation of Del Negro and Schorfheide (2004) for small samples and prevent overfitting; because the high data-driven weight (80%) dominates the empirical information and prevents instability of DSGE parameters. Data preprocessing (differencing for stationarity and standardization for scaling) was applied solely for variance homogeneity and to prevent scale bias.
Findings: The analyses conducted in this study, utilizing DSGE-VAR and VAR models, have provided a comprehensive framework for investigating the impact of economic growth and institutional quality on income inequality in Iran. The results show that income inequality, particularly through the Gini index, has shown significant resistance to financial and economic shocks, which may be related to stable but inefficient institutional and economic structures in Iran. Although GDP growth has been a major driver in some periods, in recent years it has been affected by external shocks and domestic instabilities, which have negatively affected its ability to reduce inequality. Institutional quality, including corruption control and government effectiveness, has shown severe fluctuations, highlighting structural challenges such as systemic corruption and weak management. Democracy and human capital have also acted as dynamic factors, but their impact on reducing inequality has been limited, which may indicate political and educational constraints in this area.
On the other hand, life expectancy has acted as an independent variable and shown a weak relationship with inequality, which may relate to the lack of a direct link between public health and income distribution in this modeling framework. Additionally, historical decomposition and cumulative fiscal coefficients indicate that external shocks and incoherent fiscal policies have played a significant role in exacerbating inequality and reducing the effectiveness of economic growth. These findings align with the existing literature on developing economies, which emphasizes the importance of institutional reforms and targeted policymaking.
Discussion and Conclusion: This study shows that economic growth and institutional quality in Iran have had different effects on income inequality. Although GDP growth has shown potential for economic improvement in the short term, the inability to reduce inequality due to institutional weaknesses and external shocks is prominent. Institutional quality, particularly in the areas of corruption control and government effectiveness, has acted as a key factor in moderating inequality, but its fluctuations indicate the need for deep reforms. Democracy and human capital also have the potential to reduce inequality, but this potential has not been realized due to structural constraints.
The present study demonstrates that income inequality in Iran during the period 2008–2024 (1387–1403 AH solar) mainly originates from institutional weakness (corruption control and government effectiveness), contractionary fiscal policies, and exogenous shocks (sanctions, oil price fluctuations), such that these factors explain 68% of the changes in the Gini coefficient in the historical decomposition, while economic growth has a short-term reducing effect. The results are consistent with previous studies (Asamoah, 2021; Adeleye, 2024) but, by integrating DSGE micro-foundations, Bayesian priors, and structural identification of shocks, offer higher accuracy and robustness, particularly in the small sample (n = 15), which was confirmed by a 28% improvement in forecast error and model stability (inverse roots < 1, VIF < 5, and one cointegrating relationship).
Overall, these results emphasize the necessity of a multi-faceted approach to policymaking that includes strengthening institutions, investing in education and health, and better coordination of fiscal and economic policies so that income inequality in Iran can be reduced and economic growth can sustainably lead to improved income distribution.
JAcknowledgments: The authors express their gratitude and appreciation to the Editor-in-Chief and the esteemed reviewers.
Conflict of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Keywords

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