Futures Studies of the Insurance Industry in Iran with a Scenario Planning Approach

Articles in Press

Authors

1 Department of finance Qo.C, Islamic Azad University, Qom, Iran.

2 Department of Accounting,Qo.C , Islamic Azad University, Qom, Iran

3 .Professor, Department of Management, University of Qom, Qom, Iran.

4 Department of Accounting, Qo.C, Islamic Azad University, Qom, Iran.

10.30471/jee.2026.11002.2516

Abstract

Futures Studies of the Insurance Industry in Iran with a Scenario Planning Approach



Abstract

Objective: The insurance industry is an important driver for business development. The industry faces many challenges and opportunities in the future. The present study seeks to foresight the insurance industry with a scenario-based approach focusing on potential opportunities and challenges.

Method: The present study is pragmatic research in terms of philosophical foundations and a mixed method study in terms of methodology. The theoretical population of the research was experts specializing in the field of futures studies and insurance industry trends. Sampling was done in a judgmental manner. For field analyses, two questionnaires were used: a screening questionnaire and a priority survey questionnaire.

Findings: 33 drivers were extracted through a literature review and structured interviews with insurance industry experts. The research drivers were screened using the fuzzy Delphi method. Nine drivers had a desirable defuzzified number and were selected for the final analysis. These drivers were evaluated using the Cocoso method. The prioritized drivers were: drivers of insurtech collaboration patterns with the insurance industry and the extent of use of data-driven analytics using big data in the insurance industry.

Results: Research scenarios were developed based on these two drivers. Each driver consists of two opposing states. The result of these drivers and their opposing states was four scenarios. Each scenario described specific opportunities and challenges for the insurance industry in the future.

Keywords

Journal of Economic Essays: an Islamic Approach

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 07 February 2026

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