Determinants of Credit Risk among Bank Clients A Case Study; Agricultural Bank of Iran

Authors

1 Faculty member of Beheshti University

2 M. A. in Economics

Abstract

Applying logistic Regression Model, this research paper is aimed to
figure out the determinants of credit risk among Agricultural Bank's
clients of Iran and establish a model to assess the credit risk among
them. To achieve the focus of this research, the qualitative and
financial data of ٢٠٠ randomly sampled companies which had
received credit facilities from different branches of Agricultural Bank
in Tehran during ١٩٩٩ – ٢٠٠٤ is evaluated here. Considering credit
files of each sample, ٣٦ explanatory variables including qualitative
and financial ones were sampled Finally, applying logistic regression
analysis, ١٧ variables, mostly have had significant effect on credit risk
and unique low risk and high risk clients were selected. Based on
statistic indices, these estimated functions are considered significantly
in high reliability according to goodness of fit indices and
distinguishing potentials of the model.
Findings of this research confirm the economic and financial
theories related to determinants of credit risk and show that
determinants of credit risk of Agricultural Bank clients have more in
common with the ones of the other Iranian banks such as Mellat and
Bank of Export Development.

Keywords